Iowa caucus 2024: live updates, results and analysis | AP News

Published: January 15, 2024 12:10 PM

Trump has won Iowa’s leadoff presidential caucuses, giving him a strong start in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination.

His rivals are jostling for second place, hoping for a bump heading into New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary on Jan. 23.

See the full results

CLIVE— Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is working until the last minute to round up votes.

He stopped by a caucus site in suburban Des Moines, telling voters, “I’d love to earn your support tonight.”

He fielded questions and compliments from a steady stream of voters lining up to speak with him or snap a selfie.

“I’m Jamie, and I just want to say congrats on a wonderfully run campaign,” one voter told him.

To another voter who sounded a little skeptical of him, Ramaswamy said, “We need someone with fresh legs” and said he’d fire most of the federal workforce.

“My parents came to this country the right way, too,” he told one person. “That’s what makes this country great.”

CLIVE — There are hundreds of caucus sites in Iowa. But Trump, the presumed front-runner, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who is barely registering in the polls, both ended up at the same caucus site.

“We’re trusting you, Iowa, to get it right,” Hutchinson said, addressing several hundred voters at the Horizon Events Center in Clive.

Trump was holding backstage as Hutchinson spoke.

DES MOINES — Iowa Republicans have gathered at caucus meetings across the state to pick their next GOP presidential nominee.

The coldest first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on record kicked off Monday night at minus-3 degrees Fahrenheit in the capital city, with the wind chill making it feel like minus-20, according to the National Weather Service.

In the 2016 GOP caucuses, the AP first reported results at 8:32 p.m. ET, or 32 minutes after the caucuses convened. The caucus night tabulation ended at 12:50 a.m. ET with 99.9% of total votes counted.

Among Iowa Republicans, Haley is something of an anti-Trump option, even though she was his U.N. ambassador.

She is the top candidate of GOP caucusgoers who say Trump did something illegal when it comes to at least one of the criminal cases against him, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in Monday’s Republican caucuses in Iowa.

Among those who say they are caucusing for Haley, about 4 in 10 voted for Democrat Joe Biden over Trump in 2020.

Meanwhile, DeSantis performs best among the caucusgoers who are dissatisfied with Trump but say they would ultimately vote for him in the general election, according to AP VoteCast. DeSantis’ supporters are more likely than those for other candidates to say they think abortion should always be illegal.

He performs better than Haley does among those who describe themselves as conservative.

The majority of Iowa Republican caucusgoers believe in the need to “Make America Great Again,” a sign of how Trump and his political movement have transformed a state party that denied him a victory eight years ago.

That’s according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in Monday’s Republican caucuses in Iowa. The survey was conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The findings suggest that Trump is in a strong position as the caucuses began. He shows significant strength among urban, small town and rural communities. Trump also performs well with evangelical Christians and those without a college degree. One relative weakness for Trump comes in the suburbs, where only about 4 in 10 support him.

Iowa’s Republican caucuses begin as the 2024 GOP presidential primary gets underway.

Looking for results? We’ll bring you major updates on this page. You can also follow the AP’s 2024 election results tracker.

The Trump campaign has been playing an instructional video before events in Iowa explaining how the quirky caucus process works. (Jan. 9)

Zombie Burger in Des Moines rolled out a special menu in time for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation voting contest.

The quirky restaurant posted on its Instagram page that customers can “celebrate the circus with these featured shakes + ONE-DAY-ONLY burgers at Zombie Burger!”

The special on Jan. 12 was Mom-Aswamy’s Spaghetti burger, a smashed vegetarian meatball patty, fried spaghetti and marinara croquette with mozzarella in honor of Vivek Ramaswamy.

On Jan. 13, diners could nosh on Meatball Ron, a double smashed meatball patty with mozzarella, fried banana peppers, marinara and a “hidden” garlic bread lift — inspired by DeSantis.

The meal of the day for Jan. 14 was American History 101, featuring a double pimento cheese patty, pulled pork, pulled bacon, fried okra and Carolina Gold sauce. The Carolina Gold sauce was a giveaway for Haley.

And on caucus night itself, customers could dig into a Day One Dic-Tater, with Flamin’ Hot Cheeto orange kielbasa sausage, Jack cheese, tater rounds, housemade sauerkraut and Russian dressing. Trump recently vowed to only be a dictator on “day one” of his next term.

And throughout, diners had the choice of two special drinks: a Sleepy Joe shake or a Dark Brandon shake, both available with an alcohol option.

Although it serves a similar purpose, AP VoteCast is not an exit poll, which relies largely on in-person interviews with voters conducted outside of select polling places after they’ve cast their ballots.

Prior to the launch of AP VoteCast in 2018, the AP worked with other major news organizations to conduct Election Day exit polls.

AP VoteCast was created in part to reflect significant changes over the years in how people vote, from a world where most voters cast their ballots by showing up at the polls on Election Day to one where a growing number cast their ballots before Election Day.

More on VoteCast

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is making several last minute stops in Iowa ahead of Monday night’s caucus votes. (Jan. 15) (AP video: Meg Kinnard, Carrie Antlfinger)

Launched in 2018, AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of both voters and nonvoters that aims to tell the story behind the election results.

Conducted for The Associated Press and Fox News by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, it’s a detailed snapshot of the American electorate that helps explain who voted, who didn’t vote, what issues they care about, how they feel about the candidates and why they voted the way they did.

AP VoteCast uses a combination of methods — mail, phone and online interviews — to reach voters and capture their opinions about the candidates and the election regardless of whether they vote in-person on or before Election Day or by mail-in ballot.

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NEWTON — Haley is making her case to some last-minute undecided caucusgoers — and winning over at least one.

During her third stop of a final pre-caucus push in PB’s Pub, Haley asked for a showing of hands from those who hadn’t yet made up their minds.

“We’ve got one guy,” she said, seeing Chris Varney raise his hand in the back.

After giving brief remarks and telling Iowans that “It’s go time,” Varney got a chance to speak with Haley.

“OK, she got me,” Varney said, prompting cheers from other attendees.

DES MOINES — The former president’s son is calling it now: It will be a “great night” for Team Trump.

He told The Associated Press hours before Iowa’s kickoff caucuses: “Everywhere I show up, there’s hundreds and hundreds of people, and they’re all wearing the Make America Great Again hats and carrying American flags.”

He says, “I think we’re going to have a great night.”

He says that he’s seen tremendous enthusiasm across the state for his father and that Republican voters are eager for a return to Trump’s policies.

DES MOINES — Iowa GOP caucusgoers want sweeping changes to how the federal government is run, according to AP VoteCast.

About 3 in 10 say they are seeking a complete and total upheaval. An additional 6 in 10 caucusgoers say they want substantial changes.

Most caucusgoers trust Iowa elections, but about 4 in 10 are not too confident or not at all confident in the integrity of U.S. elections. Nearly 6 in 10 have little to no confidence in the U.S. legal system.

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CEDAR RAPIDS — A few hours before the caucuses, Iowa Republican Steve Kessler sat in a sports bar awaiting an appearance by DeSantis, but he was still undecided about whom he would support.

“I like to take my time,” the 65-year-old retired electrical engineer said at Jerseys Pub & Grub.

But it wasn’t looking good for DeSantis.

“My heart is with Vivek because of his rambunctiousness,” Kessler said. “But I’m tempted to vote for Nikki to show my anti-Trump feelings.”

Why not DeSantis? “He’s not that charismatic,” he said. “But I figured I should see him before I go to caucus.”

Kessler was headed straight from the DeSantis event to his caucus site in Coralville, about 30 miles south of Cedar Rapids.

The criminal charges against Trump have done little damage to his reputation among Republicans headed to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, according to AP VoteCast.

About three-quarters of caucusgoers say the charges are political attempts to undermine him, rather than legitimate attempts to investigate important issues.

Still, about a quarter say Trump has done something illegal when it comes to at least one of the ongoing legal cases he’s facing: his role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, his alleged attempts to interfere in the vote count in the 2020 presidential election or the discovery of classified documents at his Florida home that were supposed to be in government custody.

About 4 in 10 GOP caucusgoers say immigration is the most important issue facing the country, according to AP VoteCast.

About one-third said it was the economy. Fewer people named other priorities, including foreign policy, health care, abortion or energy.

AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in Monday’s Republican caucuses in Iowa, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The vast majority — 7 in 10 — said immigrants were a negative for the country, an indication that they’re not only seeking more order on the U.S. southern border but major cuts on how many foreigners can come into the country.

Iowa Democrats had to completely redo their caucus and presidential delegate selection process after their 2020 caucuses devolved into chaos and failed to produce a clear, undisputed winner.

This year, Iowa Democrats will still hold caucuses on the same day as Republicans, but unlike in previous years, caucus-goers will not vote or indicate their pick to represent the party on the November presidential ballot. Instead, they will vote for a party nominee through a mail-in voting process that begins Jan. 12 and concludes on March 5.

The Democratic caucuses on Jan. 15 will elect delegates to the county conventions in March, which is the next step in selecting the individuals to serve as delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

National convention delegates will be required to vote for a presidential nominee in accordance with the results of the mail-in voting process.

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FORT DODGE — Melanie Klaassen, 42, plans to participate in her first caucuses on Monday night.

She and her husband, Michael, were among an engaged crowd of Trump supporters at ShinyTop Brewing who gathered to see surrogates of the former president.

The farmers from Pomeroy supported Trump in 2016 but went to their first rally in 2020 out of “curiosity,” she said. They found camaraderie there with people from “all walks of life,” Melanie said, who had been stereotyped as “bad, backwards people.”

“We’ve always voted, but we didn’t care either way how it turned out,” she said. That’s changed since Trump. “It feels like our voices really matter more,” she said.

FORT DODGE — Dozens of Trump supporters are gathered at ShinyTop Brewing to get up close and personal with some of the former president’s best-known endorsers, including Reps. Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake of Arizona.

“I want to tell you how much the world is counting on Iowa tonight,” Lake told the crowd. She added: “What you’re going to do tonight is you’re going to help save this world.”

Iowa often winnows the field, nudging underperforming candidates out of the race.

In the 2016 Republican caucuses, 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee and 2012 winner Rick Santorum both ended their campaigns shortly after their ninth and eleventh places finishes.

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Trump has long seemed like an unlikely fit for the conservative Christians who shape the first contest of the Republican primary in Iowa. But as the former president again seeks the White House, he is finding more supporters among the faithful. (Jan 7) (AP video: Mark Vancleave)

PELLA — Some voters are still waiting to get the right impression from candidates just hours before the caucuses.

Darla De Haan said Monday as she ate lunch at The Bread Board that she had Nikki Haley at the top of her list but wanted to hear from the candidate in person. Haley was set to appear later Monday afternoon at the Pella restaurant.

De Haan, a psychotherapist, said that she had not caucused in years but was looking forward to participating this time.

“For me, it’s really about character,” De Haan said. “I want to see people who have integrity, who keep their word. … I kind of get a sense when you’re around someone, if they’re going to do what they say.”

De Haan said she had not seen other 2024 candidates as they have campaigned through Iowa over the past year but was interested to hear what Haley had to say during her round of closing arguments to the state’s caucusgoers.

After the bloody 1968 Democratic Convention, the Democrats created a commission seeking to empower women, minority voters and young people in selecting their presidential nominee.

The post-1968 Democratic reforms had a lasting effect on Iowa. New party rules required more time to pass between the state party’s four tiers of conventions, which ranged from local to statewide. That forced Iowa’s Democratic leaders to start the process earlier in the calendar.

When it became clear Iowa’s caucuses could move ahead of New Hampshire — where the primary had kicked off presidential voting for decades — officials jumped at the chance.

In January of 1972, the corn-producing state tucked within America’s heartland hosted the Democratic Party’s opening presidential contest for the first time. Republicans followed four years later.

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DES MOINES — Dozens of people packed into a diner near Drake University as they waited for Haley.

“It’s caucus day. Get excited!” Haley said to a crowd of several dozen, many of whom drank coffee from cups festooned with “Pick Nikki” stickers.

Speaking directly to those serving as caucus captains, Haley asked them to “speak from the heart” in their Monday night speeches.

The GOP candidate plans to make several stops in central Iowa ahead of Monday night’s votes, including making an appearance at a caucus location before heading to her campaign celebration.

DES MOINES — Trump is stepping up his attacks against his rivals on the morning of Iowa’s kickoff caucuses.

On his Truth Social site, Trump is knocking Haley, his former U.N. ambassador, as “an unwanted Globalist” and calling her “weak on the Border.”

Trump is also going after Vivek Ramaswamy, the tech entrepreneur who has run as a steward of his Make America Great Again movement.

“A vote for Vivek is a wasted vote,” Trump wrote in all caps. “I like Vivek, but he played it too ‘cute’ with us. Caucus tonight, vote for Donald J. Trump, build up the numbers!!!”

Trump spent much of the race praising Ramaswamy for saying nice things about him. But Trump turned on him this week after Ramaswamy posted a photo of himself posing with supporters wearing “Save Trump, vote Vivek” T-shirts.