VILLENEUVE-D’ASCQ, France (AP) — No team has reached the quarterfinals yet in the men’s basketball tournament at the Paris Olympics. No team has been eliminated, either.
That said, Tuesday and Wednesday sure seem like make-or-break days for some nations — and medal chances might evaporate very quickly for those which stumble again.
With all 12 teams having been in action on either Saturday or Sunday, everyone in the men’s tournament at Pierre Mauroy Stadium gets Monday off. For some, that provides a chance to regroup and practice. For others, like the U.S. — which rolled past Serbia in its opener, led by Kevin Durant’s brilliant return from a calf issue — it brings a day to relax, recover and go be Team USA fans.
“It’s huge,” U.S. coach Steve Kerr said Monday. “And it’s also important for us to allow our players to enjoy the Olympic experience, for them to be able to go and watch some of the other sports, be with their families. It’s a huge part of this. That’s what today is about, and then we’ll lock back in tomorrow.”
Group play takes a 12-team Olympic field and trims it down to eight, with the top two teams in each of the three groups automatically advancing to the quarterfinals in Paris next week and the two best third-place teams also moving on.
Translation: teams that go 3-0 in group are definitely in, teams that go 2-1 in group are almost certainly safe barring some wild tiebreaker scenario, teams that go 1-2 in group will need some help but could still move on (two such teams did advance at the Tokyo Games three years ago), and teams that go 0-3 in group are going home early.
A look at where things stand after one round of group play:
Group A: Australia, Canada in lead
— Standings: Australia 1-0, Canada 1-0, Greece 0-1, Spain 0-1.
— Tuesday schedule: Spain vs. Greece, Canada vs. Australia.
— Outlook: The Canada-Australia winner — a battle of bronze medalists, Australia from the Tokyo Olympics three years ago and Canada from last year’s World Cup — can go ahead and start planning for next week’s knockout round. Expect the Greece-Spain game to have a Game 7-type feel to it, since the loser will fall to 0-2 and will face a must-win scenario Friday just to have any chance of advancing.
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— After this: Friday has Australia vs. Greece and Canada vs. Spain.
— Quotable: “It’s a tough one. But I think at the end of the day, that just helps you prepare for what’s coming after. When you survive a group like this, it just makes you better.” — Canada coach Jordi Fernandez, on being in the so-called ‘group of death’ at these Olympics.
Group B: Germany, France on top for now
— Standings: Germany 1-0, France 1-0, Brazil 0-1, Japan 0-1.
— Tuesday schedule: Japan vs. France, Brazil vs. Germany.
— Outlook: If France and Germany both win Tuesday, they’re in the quarterfinals and their game on Friday will be for the top spot coming out of the group. Victor Wembanyama had a monster Olympic debut, and Germany proved its World Cup title last year was no fluke in its opener here. Watch the point differentials — Brazil lost by 12 in its opener to France and Japan lost by 20 to Germany in its first game. The worse those numbers get, the lesser the chance of winning any potential wild-card tiebreakers to decide those two best third-place teams.
— After this: Friday has Japan vs. Brazil and France vs. Germany.
— Quotable: “These games are always tricky. Japan just lost so they’re going to give everything.” — France’s Evan Fournier, on the level of desperation he expects from Japan on Tuesday.
Group C: U.S., South Sudan to play for 1st place
— Standings: U.S. 1-0, South Sudan 1-0, Puerto Rico 0-1, Serbia 0-1.
— Wednesday schedule: Puerto Rico vs. Serbia, U.S. vs. South Sudan.
— Outlook: The U.S.-South Sudan matchup is one that everyone will be watching, especially after the upstart team from Africa nearly knocked off the Americans in London earlier this month in a 101-100 game that nobody saw coming. The winner of that game will lock up a trip to the quarterfinals. Serbia-Puerto Rico isn’t an elimination game, but the winner has a much better shot of advancing to next week and the loser will be doing a whole lot of hoping.
— After this: Saturday has Puerto Rico vs. U.S., Serbia vs. South Sudan.
— Quotable: “That was a friendly. They’re going to be ready for us. … USA is a big challenge, and we’ll prepare these next couple of days for USA and get in the gym and get right.” — South Sudan coach Royal Ivey, discussing the one-point loss in an exhibition at London and now getting ready to face the Americans in the Olympics.
Next week’s schedule
The quarterfinals are Aug. 6, the semifinals are Aug. 8 and the gold- and bronze-medal games are on Aug. 10, all in Paris.
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